By Robert Laurie
Democrats are counting on a massive “blue wave” in November. After the devastating, disastrous, defeat of Hillary Clinton, they desperately need something – anything – to prove to themselves that their ideology still has a future. So, they’ve built their entire existence around the midterms.
If you believe the hype, they’re in good shape. The media tells us that the House of Representatives is lost, GOP resignations are a sign of doom, and Trump will probably be impeached by the incoming Congress.
They might be right. Historically, midterms favor the party out of power and Democrats certainly hate the incumbent President. Enthusiasm should be on their side. But is it really?
Not so fast, says the Washington Post. According to their most recent poll, that “blue wave” may be dissipating before it hits the shore. As they put it, rather mildly, “Democrats’ advantage in midterm election support is shrinking.”
With the Republicans’ House majority at risk, 47 percent of registered voters say they prefer the Democratic candidate in their district, while 43 percent favor the Republican. That four-point margin compares with a 12-point advantage Democrats held in January. Among a broader group of voting-age adults, the Democrats’ margin is 10 points, 50 percent to 40 percent. …
Democrats hold an advantage ahead of the midterm elections, but a Washington Post-ABC News poll shows that edge has narrowed since January, a signal to party leaders and strategists that they could be premature in anticipating a huge wave of victories in November.
The poll finds that the gap between support for Democratic vs. Republican House candidates dropped by more than half since the beginning of the year. At the same time, there has been a slight increase in President Trump’s approval rating, although it remains low. Measures of partisan enthusiasm paint a more mixed picture of the electorate in comparison to signs of Democratic intensity displayed in many recent special elections.
Prematurely anticipating victories? Golly. Where have we heard that before?
Like I said, Dems might still get their big win. However, like “President Hillary Clinton,” it’s looking less and less likely as time passes.
The problem, of course, is that it’s waaaay too early for these sorts of polls. Under any presidency, almost anything can happen between April and November. That’s a veritable eternity in political time. Under this presidency, it’s doubly true.
Given how unhinged Democrats are, it’s easy to imagine them massively overplaying their hand between now and Election Day. …Likewise, I can envision a few scenarios that would crater the current administration.
So, we can add the WaPo poll to a rapidly growing pile of good news, but no one should be counting their chickens just yet.