Arizona Is Trump's Last Hope (Probably), And It's Getting Pretty Darn Close There

Here’s a fun fact you may not have known: When the media calls a state for one candidate or another, that isn’t anything. It’s just the media saying who they think will win.

When the media called Arizona on Tuesday night for Joe Biden, it prompted a lot of handwringing (including here) because no Democrat since Bill Clinton has won Arizona. Also, because it severely narrowed Donald Trump’s path to re-election. It meant he couldn’t afford to lose Wisconsin and Michigan, and at least for now it appears he’s lost both. It leaves Nevada as the only state out there that could possibly pull Trump out of the fire, and Nevada hasn’t gone red since it voted for George W. Bush in 2000.

But it’s a funny thing about Arizona. As sure as the media were that it was going for Biden on Tuesday night, it’s still not official that Biden won the state. And it’s getting awfully darn close as we write this morning:

CNN analysts said that new Maricopa County data shows Trump is gaining on Biden and, if votes continued that way, could even “meet and beat” Joe Biden in the state. Joe Biden is still winning the county, with 51.4 percent of the vote in the county but around 200,000 votes remain to be reported.

“Trump has been meeting the thresholds he needs to at least pull even,” CNN said. “The biggest question is the composition of what’s left.” Both campaigns will have a strong sense of the makeup of votes still to come in, with analytics on previous voting data which, CNN says, the “Biden campaign says they feel good about.”

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Until recent results came in, Joe Biden was comfortably ahead in the state with 55 percent of the popular vote but now, that stands at around 50.5 percent, with Trump at around 48.1 percent. There is still around 15 percent of the vote to be reported.

Arizona seems to be showing the potential to go the opposite way as Wisconsin and Michigan, which initially showed Trump leads but later saw Biden close the gap. The Trump campaign has been saying since election night that the Arizona call was premature. If even CNN is now acknowledging that Trump is closing the gap, it would seem to me that the media know they jumped that gun.

The count in Nevada is also not complete, and it’s tantalizingly close. As we write this, there is 75 percent reporting and Trump is within 0.6 percent of Biden.

Assuming Wisconsin and Michigan aren’t overturned by recounts or other challenges, Biden currently stands at 264 electoral votes. Nevada would get him to 270, which is enough to win. Arizona would get him to 275. If he takes both, it gets him to 281.

Trump stands at 214, with results still not official in Georgia, North Carolina or Pennsylvania. Trump currently leads in all three (although Georgia is getting really close), and if he takes all three that gets him to 265. At that point either Arizona or Nevada would put Trump over the top as well.

But! If Trump takes Arizona and Nevada, but Georgia slips away, that leaves Trump at only 268 and Biden would win the electoral vote by a mere two votes.

I don’t think I can ever recall a presidential election in which so many pivotal states were so close, but that’s where we stand today – two days after Election Day. We may not know the winner until the end of the week, and that’s before any possible legal challenges.

At least the ads are over.