In Florida's COVID spike, the median age for new cases has dropped from 65 in March to 36 now

You can look at this in one of two ways. The panicky way would be: Oh my God! Now young people are getting it!

But I don’t think that’s the right way to look at it.

The most plausible alternative to the lockdowns that finally and blessedly ended just weeks ago is to isolate the highest-risk members of the population, while allowing the rest of us to live our lives as normal and manage whatever cases come about.

The first spike, which started in March, infected a high number of older people. That resulted in high hospitalization rates and a high death rate, precisely because this portion of the population was more likely to have underlying health issues and would thus be susceptible to more severe symptoms.

The fact that the current spike is hitting a much younger population suggests that the isolate-the-vulnerable-and-let-everyone-else-live-their-lives scenario is playing out exactly as envisioned:

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The age of typical coronavirus victims has plummeted in Florida, shifting away from the elderly, in a change with significant implications for the disease’s future. The median age for coronavirus victims went from 65 at the beginning of March to 36 this week, according to the Florida Department of Health.
 
The decline reflects both increased testing and the disease’s broader spread through the state’s population, as lockdowns fade and businesses reopen, according to epidemiologists. While younger, healthier coronavirus patients will make fewer demands on Florida’s hospitals, experts say they will tend to spread the disease more widely, as they eat out, return to work and behave less carefully than older people fearful of a disease that has taken a severe toll among the elderly.

Indeed, the median age of those infected in Florida has been dropping steadily, week by week, since the start of the pandemic. The good news is that the recent spike in new cases hasn’t changed that trend. The median age is still dropping even as the number of new cases is rising.

From everything we know about this disease, that should mean that the current group of people testing positive should generate much lower hospitalization rates and many fewer deaths. That doesn’t mean the death rate will be zero, as people in their 30s can have underlying health issues as well. And obviously, just because the median age is 36 doesn’t mean older people aren’t getting it.

But there was never a chance that the reopening would end the pandemic entirely. There are still going to be new cases. The challenge now is whether we can manage the new cases we get without overwhelming our health care system, and without once again shutting down businesses and destroying people’s livelihoods.

Another thing we don’t know from the news reports of recent days is how many of those among the current new cases are symptomatic. Just because you test positive doesn’t necessarily mean you have symptoms. In March and April, almost no one was being tested unless they first showed symptoms, so there was no way to know how many people were carrying the virus but weren’t getting sick. Now that testing is much more widely available, you’ve got people going to be tested just because they can, and that’s leading to more people testing positive even if they’re showing no symptoms at all.

We have conflicting reports on whether people without symptoms really spread the virus efficiently, but there’s at least some reason to think they can. That’s not to be taken lightly, but if a large percentage of those testing positive show no symptoms, we have reason to be less panicky overall about the consequences of community spread.

Until there’s a vaccine, the coronavirus will remain a serious situation, and we shouldn’t be cavalier about the risks that are present. In my mind it’s insane for people to rage against mask-wearing as some sort of stand on behalf of “liberty” or whatever. If Dick Cheney is willing to wear a mask, that’s good enough for me!

But as we learn about the true nature of this disease, we should also adjust the way we react to it, and hopefully eliminate the over-the-top reactions that exact far too high a price on the rest of society. Politicians who claim to be saving your life should not be taken seriously if they won’t let you live your life.