New poll shows Heidi Heitkamp being crushed by her Republican challenger - the Kavanaugh effect

The other day a radio host asked me which way I thought the midterms were heading.  Are we headed for a blue wave, or will Democrat rage sputter? My answer was a simple “I’m not sure.”

My hunch says that rage won’t be enough to win the day for the Dems. The polls show the gap in enthusiasm is basically gone, and the gap in generic ballot preference is closing. The GOP will probably pick up seats in the Senate, but as for the House – no one really knows. Things will likely be extremely close, and anyone who tells you there’s a red or blue wave forming is probably selling something.

Part of the uncertainty is due to the fact that 2016 taught us not to trust any individual poll. They can be manipulated, spun, massaged, and misrepresented to the point where they’re basically worthless. If they weren’t, President Hillary would be about to pick her third Supreme Court nominee.

Trends, on the other hand, have some value.  Right now, things are trending the GOP’s way. We’re seeing that all around the country. And yes, a lot of it has to do with the Dems’ decision to overplay their hand in September.

For example, as Valley News Live reports, North Dakota Senator Heidi Heitkamp is all but finished:

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In an exclusive poll by KVLY, KFYR and Strategic Research Associates of 650 likely voters in North Dakota conducted between October 12 – 19, 2018, Republican challenger Kevin Cramer leads incumbent Democratic Senator Heidi Heitkamp 56% to 40%, increasing his lead since Gray Television’s September poll, in which Cramer held a 10-point advantage. Heitkamp’s support appears relatively fixed. Only 5% of those supporting her say that they might change their mind, compared to 17% of Cramer supporters who say they may still change theirs.

Heitkamp is viewed favorably by 37% of North Dakota voters and unfavorably by 52%, with 7% holding a neutral opinion and 4% unfamiliar. That unfavorable number represents a significant increase since September, when only 41% held an unfavorable view of her. Her challenger is viewed favorably by 53% of likely voters (a 7-point increase over September) and unfavorably by 38%, with 5% holding a neutral opinion and 4% unfamiliar with him.

So, a difficult 10-point margin jumped to a probably insurmountable 16 points in less than a month. If you’re wondering what could have caused this, you need look no further than newly minted Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.

In the wake of the Democrats’ disgusting treatment of the nominee, Heitkamp announced she’d be one of the “red state Dems” who voted against the Kavanaugh confirmation. It was, in a word, unwise. Kavanaugh is on the bench and her futile efforts to block him have emerged as the single biggest obstacle to her re-election.

“Senator Heitkamp appears to have been hurt by her vote against Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the U.S. Supreme Court as well as by subsequent campaign missteps widely covered in the media,” said James Henson, PhD, a partner in Strategic Research Associates, LLC, the research firm that conducted the poll for Gray Television. The U.S. Senate voted on Kavanaugh’s confirmation in the period between the two polls.

Joe Manchin, in contrast, is currently enjoying the exact opposite polling results. Despite being a Democrat, he chose to stick with the wishes of his red state constituency and voted to confirm. The risk, obviously, was that his Dem supporters might abandon him. That hasn’t happened. He’s currently 16 points ahead of his challenger. Republican internal polling shows the race being much closer, but the odds still suggest that Manchin will coast to a fairly easy win.

In other words, the “Kavanaugh effect” is real. The question now is; “How far does it extend?”  Will it be enough to shift a few House races in the Republicans’ favor?

You would assume that, all things being equal, the impact of the Dems’ Kavanaugh fiasco would be limited to Senate races.  After all, Senators were the ones forced to take a stand on the nomination. But the vitriol that was leveled at the nominee came from virtually every corner of the left-wing world – Senate, House, media, and rank & file.  So, the assumption that its impact will be limited to just those involved may be short–sighted.

It’s entirely possible that the damage done will hit the Democrats party-wide.

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Here’s hoping.