He could do it. He did it in 2016. But ideally, a president running for re-election would be the one in command. It would be the challenger who has to sweep every leaner and tossup to win. As of about seven weeks to go until Election Day, that’s not where we stand.
NPR has produced a very useful map to show where we’re at:
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This map is not that different from your standard electoral map going into any presidential election. It’s unusual for Georgia to be a tossup because it’s gone red every year since Jimmy Carter. Arizona is scary as a tossup but it’s been trending away from the Republicans for several elections. Ohio and Florida are always close. Michigan and Pennsylvania have been blue from 1988 until last time, so they’re merely reverting to form. North Carolina went for Trump, but it also went for Obama, so it makes sense to consider it a tossup again.
The fact is, no matter who the candidates are, there is only so much variation in the electoral map. It was like an earthquake for Trump to take Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. They’re always identified as battleground states but the Democrats usually assume they’ll take them in the end. Getting that call wrong cost them the presidency last time.
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Arizona may be teetering. Georgia probably isn’t. New Mexico went for Bush in 2000 but has gone Democrat every election since. Nevada is theoretically winnable for Republicans but so far the theory has proven flawed.
Every presidential election is more-or-less decided by the outcomes in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Iowa. Every other state will pretty much do what it’s always done. This time there’s some thought that Minnesota could go red, or that Georgia could go blue. But both are unlikely.
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The only thing different about this election will be how those eight pivotal states shake out, because they shake out a little differently every time. Biden has more margin for error than Trump does, based on the polls. At the same time, Trump could lose 36 electoral votes he won in 2016 and still win the presidency. Biden has to hold everything Hillary won and pick up 37 more electoral votes in addition.
The race is close, but all races are close. And the polls right now don’t tell you very much because there’s too much that can happen between now and Election Day.
