The numbers don't back up the media's 'second wave' hysteria

It should come as no surprise that we’re now being pelted with headlines about an “alarming” increase in COVID-19 cases. The Lockdown Left never wanted to reopen, and has been insisting ever since the nation’s liberation began that a second wave would surely result.

Of course their media megaphones are going to parrot that talking point, and jump on any news of new cases to make the claim that the second wave has begun. They will do that even if a more careful assessment of the numbers in no way backs up their hysteria.

Are cases up? In raw terms, yes. If you stop right there, you’ve got all you need to drive your second-wave narrative. But there are a lot of other factors to consider as you assess what’s going on. Most of the media aren’t considering those factors because they don’t want to.

The Wall Street Journal does, and did:

Tests have increased by about 37% in Florida in two weeks, but confirmed cases have risen 28%. Cases were rising at a faster clip during the last two weeks of April (47%) when much of the state remained locked down. Now restaurants, malls, barbershops and gyms are open if they follow social-distancing guidelines. In Arizona, cases have increased by 73% in the last two weeks though tests have increased by just 53%. But a quarter of all cases in the state are on Indian reservations, which have especially high-risk populations. The rate of diabetes is twice as high among Native Americans as whites and the rate of obesity is 50% higher.

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Texas has also recently reported an uptick in Covid-19 hospitalizations, mostly in the Houston and Austin areas. Current Covid-19 hospitalizations are up about 20% since the state began to reopen, but Gov. Greg Abbott says hospitals aren’t overwhelmed and much of the increase is tied to nursing homes. The number of currently hospitalized patients per capita is still about 80% higher in New York City than in Texas. Mr. Abbott started reopening six weeks ago while Mr. Cuomo began letting manufacturing and construction resume in the Big Apple this week.

Fatalities are a lagging epidemic indicator since most people who die have been in the hospital for two to three weeks. But deaths also aren’t surging. Texas has recorded 151 deaths this past week versus 221 in the last week of April. Florida has reported 239 deaths, 72 fewer than in the last week of April.

Remember how the “experts” insisted we couldn’t reopen until we had more testing? Now we have more testing. When more people are being tested, what do you think you’re going to find? You’re going to find more cases. That doesn’t mean there are more cases. It just means you’re aware of more of them.

The fact that we can test more people – even though that means we will see more positive tests – makes reopening safer because it’s easier to isolate those we know are carrying the virus.

Another factor in the reduced number of deaths is that we understand more about the virus than we did in March and April, so doctors can introduce more effective treatments earlier in the process. Emergency room bed occupancy is not significantly up in the states that have reopened, and many of the new cases are limited to specific high-risk populations.

However hard the media campaigns for another lockdown, it’s not an option – no matter what happens with COVID cases. The first lockdown put more than 10 million people out of work and shuttered thousands of businesses. And there’s no proof it was any more effective at slowing the pandemic than simple caution might have been. In the meantime, people who needed other kinds of medical treatment couldn’t get them, and there’s no telling how many lives that cost.

No politician caused the coronavirus, but the collective response of the political class to the pandemic has been a complete fiasco, even with the media cheerleading for the lockdowns. They’re so invested in this narrative that they’re pushing misleading statistics in an attempt to make it look like the second wave is already underway.

It’s not. Don’t be scared to go out and live your lives. And if you’re finding that difficult, let me suggest turning off the news and spending more time loving your neighbor instead.